August 28, 2010

Afghanistan: No solution in sight

Times of India, July 10

The arrival of General David Petraeus in Kabul and the commotion of General Stanley Mc-Chrystal losing his job caused quite a clatter internationally with speculation on whether the new General, who was actually the old General - both in seniority and in terms of the genesis of the COIN and 'surge' strategies - would retain the same policy. Chastened by his predecessor's fate, General Petraeus is going slow on exhibiting his individuality.

What attracted less attention, except from the most assiduous of Afghanistan watchers were the swift changes executed by President Hamid Karzai in the security sector, through a series of appointments that consolidate his hold in key positions. They include the shifting of the powerful General Bismillah Khan to the Ministry of Interior, a new deputy minister in the Ministry of Defence, a new chief of staff of the army, and a new head of the National Security Directorate, the country's intelligence agency.

The local media interpreted them as signs of a greater role for Pashtuns in the security apparatus as well as paving the way for reconciliation with insurgent groups including the Taliban and the Haqqani faction. However the appointments also reflect something wider - a shift in the centre of gravity over the past few months, away from the international compact on rebuilding of the Afghan state and government towards more localised interests , both within Afghanistan and the region.

While the US still dominates in Afghanistan with the sheer size of the military and economic resources that it brings, its leverage has become more fragmented with no clarity of direction. Over the past year US engagement in Afghanistan has been fraught with tensions, as much between Karzai and the Obama administrations as within the Obama administration itself, most clearly visible here in Kabul in the wide divergence between the top military and civilian representatives in Kabul - General McChrystal and Ambassador Karl Eikenberry. The reason perhaps, is not, as is often suggested, that Obama can't get it right, but just that his administration's attention is engaged elsewhere.

If Iraq was the distraction during the Bush era, it is domestic issues that absorb a great deal of the new president's energy and focus. In so far as Afghanistan factors into this, it is largely through a preoccupation with how quickly and how neatly the US will be able to exit Afghanistan.

While differences in the American agenda display themselves as dissonances in policy, the Afghan establishment is also working at multiple levels, but in an effort to position itself for multiple realities. These include keeping a working relationship with the international community to maintain a stream of economic and military support, overtures to the Taliban, enhanced political engagement with Pakistan, pacification of India, Iran and the Russia and most important of all, a way of consolidating its own hold on power. How the insurgency grows in the future, how much leverage Pakistan can assert and how quickly the international community wants to exit will be amongst the main factors determining which of these overtures by the Karzai government strengthens or weakens in the future.

The recent peace jirga is an illustrative example of how a single event can work at various levels. On the one hand it fed into the international community's concerns of increasing chaos by projecting reconciliation as a magic panacea, a way out of the morass; to those of the insurgents willing to bite, it held out the prospect of joining the establishment; those fearful of the return of the Taliban were assured by the various and ambiguous caveats limiting insurgent participation that are open to widely varied interpretation. The jirga assured Pakistan of its significance in an eventual political solution and reassured India that a government led by Karzai would not go too far. In concrete terms it also provided the initiation of a 'project' that could attract more donor funding - a new cash cow just when the international community was beginning to ask questions about other sectors it has been funding.

The forthcoming Kabul Conference promises to be yet another such beast. The Afghan government's priorities, which were set in 2006, refined in 2008 and reviewed in London in 2010, are now expected to be reworked in July 2010. Like the proverbial elephant in a room full of blind men, the conference may well end with each taking from it a suitable conclusion. In fact, in the current international mindset which equates a 'full calendar of events' with actual progress, not much needs to happen anyway, apart from the mere holding of the conference.

The acute concentration of attention on new, bright and shining events belies what lies beneath its shadows: increasing despair, impoverishment and estrangement of ordinary Afghans from the process of governance. The poorest segment - one third of all Afghans - do not meet their dietary requirements are getting squeezed further , being forced to sell income-generating assets as the humanitarian crisis deepens. Significant numbers of those entrusted with leadership in the task of rebuilding the Afghan state are those who have private economic interests that benefit directly from continuation of the conflict.

The growth of intolerant ideologies is pushing women back into their homes, obstructing their movement and encouraging violence against them through impunity. Ethnic minorities have started expressing their concerns about marginalisation. Political movements and the process of democratisation are being deliberately weakened. Rule of law and justice are being seen as an expendable luxury in the quest for 'stability'. Meanwhile the support for the Taliban continues to grow, albeit less rapidly than the Taliban itself.

The Taliban now operate in all 34 provinces and have shadow governments in 33 provinces of Afghanistan. Their growing capabilities and the increasing violence in Afghanistan are well-documented. Until now an overwhelming majority of the Afghan people continue to put their faith in the government and the institutions of state. But this trend is changing. People are increasingly turning away to non-state actors in search for help. Less noticeable than the shift of gravity within the political class, the centre of gravity within the Afghan population is also moving.

Taliban attack compound of US contractor in Afghanistan

The Guardian, July 2

Suicide bombers and gunmen attacked the compound of a USAid contractor in the northern Afghan province of Kunduz today, killing four people including a British national.

The attack on the compound of Development Alternatives Inc (DAI) also wounded 10 people, including a Briton whose condition was described by the British embassy as critical but stable. Initial reports suggested that the dead may have been members of a private security firm guarding the compound.

The gunbattle, which started at 3am local time and lasted for more than six hours, destroyed the compound, according to local officials.

Although the province is the hub of insurgency in the northern areas, the scale and complexity of the attack was unprecedented in the region, marking a new level of capability for the insurgency on the day General David Petraeus, the new commander of the Nato and US forces, arrived in Kabul.

"Maybe they attempted to send a signal," Nato's General Joseph Blotz said, adding "but this is senseless."

Blotz said the attack resembled an assault on a UN guesthouse in Kabul in October last year that killed eight people.

Thomas Ruttig of the thinktank the Afghan Analysts Network said: "It is a first time for Kunduz that such a complex attack has happened there, and one against a non-military target. This is another sign they are getting stronger and have a greater foothold [in this area] and can pull off attacks like this one."

A Taliban spokesman was quoted by the local Pajhwok news agency claiming responsibilty and claiming the compound was that of the US special forces, something denied by US officials.

While development agencies have found it easier to work in northern areas, many of them have reported increasing threats from insurgents moving into new areas.

DAI is termed a for-profit contractor, a distinction that traditional NGOs are keen to emphasise. Many for-profit contractors live in armed compounds, something that traditional NGOs eschew in order to emphasise their neutrality.

Ruttig said: "I have concerns about the privatisation and militarisation of development co-operation which makes people who work in these organisations very vulnerable."

USAid termed the attack "another tragic reminder of the life threatening circumstances that our Afghan and international partners face as they work to improve conditions".

The attack comes at a time when the Obama administration is trying to pump more money into the civilian surge as part of its transition strategy in the face of growing domestic resistance.

In Afghanistan, drug rehab for children

Christian Science Monitor/ July 14, 2010

Najiba scrabbles through cupboards frantic for something sweet. She claws at her mother, urging her to help. Najiba, though only 13 years old, lives in the Sanga Amaj drug addiction rehab clinic in Kabul with her mother, Zainab – who is also an opium addict, a habit acquired from her husband and passed on to her daughter.
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.“When she was born, she kept crying, so after two months or so I started giving her opium to keep her quiet,” says Zainab. (Her and Najiba’s names have been changed to protect their privacy.)

The result is a drug dependency that Najiba is now desperately fighting.

Yet she is neither alone among Afghan children addicted to opium, nor among the worst affected. For starters, she’s one of a small minority getting professional help.

Opium as a pacifier
Opium is used in parts of Afghanistan to quiet babies and, in poorer households without access to medical help, to relieve pain – trends exacerbated by decades of conflict. Economic pressures and fragmented families have meant that women have less help at home and are more likely to give opium to cranky children, to free themselves up to do housework.

“Opium is sometimes used as a child-rearing method,” says Preeti Shah, a Narcotics Affairs Officer of the US Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) in Kabul.

The conflict has also left people with deep physical psychological wounds, which they try to numb with narcotics.

A two-year pilot study by the INL on drug addiction and household toxicity in Afghanistan found that babies as young as nine months were testing positive for narcotics, says Thom Browne, deputy director of the INL’s anticrime programs. It also found that in many cases, the level of toxicity in young children was several times higher than that in adult heroin users. The study, which looked at 30 households in three provinces, will be expanded to cover 2,000 households in 22 provinces next year.

While other countries also face cases of babies born with addiction, in Afghanistan the problem deepens as parents continue to administer drugs to their children. According to a recent report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), up to half of drug users surveyed gave their children opium. The INL found in their study of Afghan drug users’ homes significant samples of opium in the air, bedding, eating utensils, toys, and other items that children come into contact with.

Treatment as taboo

Treating drug addiction is not easy anywhere, but is especially difficult in Afghanistan because of social and cultural stigmas against females going outside the home. Many families are reluctant to let women come and stay at Sanga Amaj for the 45-day treatment period, let alone the preferred 90-day period, says Latifa Hamidi, the doctor who oversees the clinic. Even surveying women proved near impossible – they constituted only 3 percent of the UNODC’s sample size.

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.Even more helpful would be treat the entire family, says Gilberto Gerra, the UNODC’s chief of drug prevention. Otherwise, “if a woman goes back to a home where her husband is using drugs, the risk of relapse is very high.”

Although cultural taboos prohibit men and women being treated together, the INL hopes to build treatment centers for men and women near one another, to allow family members to visit one another. Sanga Amaj, which opened in 2007, represents a step in that direction, by treating women and their children together.

The clinic’s 33 patients include 15 children, the youngest of whom is 3 years old. Zainab and Najiba have been here for two weeks. In addition to attending group therapy sessions and receiving medical treatment, during they day they exercise, sit in religion classes, and learn skills like sewing and embroidery. At the end of their time, they will go home to Zainab’s husband, who has already undergone treatment. If Zainab and Najiba stay clean, they will be entitled to free medicine from the clinic.

Facilities like Sanga Amaj are few. Kabul only has four, which can handle about 100 patients. Of Afghanistan’s 1 million drug users, at least 90 percent have no access to treatment, according to the UNODC.

Expanding treatment facilities would require considerable foreign aid and expertise, but does not rank high on donors’ list of priorities. These include instead ending the poppy farming and drug trade that make Afghanistan the supplier of 90 percent of the world’s opium.

“Afghanistan is known for being a supply country,” says Ms. Shah. “It is time to recognize it is a demand country as well.”

Afghan citizens paid $1bn in bribes for public services last year, study finds

The Guardian, July 8

Afghans paid nearly $1bn (£658m) in bribes last year, according to a new survey that reveals that corruption in the country has doubled since 2007.

The study by the monitoring group Integrity Watch Afghanistan showed that the average value of bribes paid in 2009 was $156. The average per capita income is $502 per year.

Almost a third of civil servants said they have been forced to pay a bribe to obtain a public service, while 13% of households said that they had paid bribes to secure their own sources of income

The survey also showed that more than half the country's population feels that corruption is helping the Taliban's expansion.

Equally worrying for Nato forces combating the insurgency is the finding that the judiciary and the police were identified as the two most corrupt institutions in Afghanistan.

While most respondents said they hoped that state institutions would tackle the problem of corruption, there was an increasing tendency to turn to non-state actors to solve their problems, a trend that could further bolster support for the insurgency.

"Corruption is weakening the legitimacy of the state," said Lorenzo Delesgues, a founder and co-director of IWA.

The survey sampled 6,498 people in 32 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces over November and December 2009.

More than a quarter of Afghans (26%) felt deprived of access to justice and security because of corruption. Half (50%) of those surveyed said that corruption within the state was helping expansion of the Taliban either absolutely (36%) or a little (14%).

Weak law enforcement was identified as a major cause for corruption with as many as 28% of civil servants saying they had to pay bribes to secure or retain their jobs. However donor money was also identified as a major cause of corruption

President Hamid Karzai – criticised regularly by the international community for his apparent unwillingness to tackle graft – was seen as the best bet for countering corruption (80% identified the presidency as the best institution to deal with the problem), though more than half the people said he had not performed on this issue.

Sangin pullout: British troops 'have not brought peace'

Aunohita Mojumdar in Kabul, Ali Safi, and Declan Walsh in Islamabad

The Guardian, July 7, 2010

Sangin's residents have criticised the planned withdrawal later this year of British troops from their town, complaining that four years of fighting have failed to bring peace or development.

"The British have failed," said Haji Fazlul Haq, a former town governor, speaking by telephone. "They could not bring security to the town and that is why they are handing it to the Americans."

The blunt assessment was shared by other residents who expressed greater confidence in US forces due to take control in November. "The Americans fight harder. I think the Taliban will be afraid of this change of command," said Haji Abdul Wahab, acting director of the peace commission of Helmand, a government body that promotes reconciliation.

Their reaction offered little consolation to British forces, who have paid a high price in Sangin. More than 100 British soldiers have died around the town since Tony Blair deployed the first troops in June 2006, making it the deadliest battlezone for western soldiers in Afghanistan.

British commanders say the withdrawal is not an admission of failure but rather a routine battlefield reorganisation that reflects the increased American presence in the province. There are currently 20,000 US soldiers in Helmand, twice as many as the British, and more are coming.

But there is little doubt that the British exit is an admission of the difficulty of purging the Taliban from a town in the grip of the heroin trade and surrounded by determined insurgents. While British soldiers have battlefield superiority over their enemy, many of whom are armed with basic rifles, the nature of the counter-insurgency requires them to conduct "presence patrols" in villages.

This makes them an easy target for insurgents who plant roadside bombs by night then melt into the population during the day. The Taliban are also becoming more canny: this year troops reported more landmines with no metal content, rendering metal detectors useless.

Some residents did recognise the British sacrifices. "I don't want to put all the blame on British because they have lost many lives here" said Shamsullah Khan, a candidate for September's parliamentary elections.

In Pakistan, the British move was seen as confirmation of the view that the Nato war in Afghanistan was unwinnable in its present form. "It's like chasing a nameless, invisible enemy," said Rustum Shah Mohmand, a former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan. "This is not about [Hamid] Karzai, or corruption, or the marginalisation of the Pashtuns. It's about the presence of the foreign forces. Until they leave, peace will never come to Afghanistan," he said.

It is not the only high-profile pullout in Afghanistan of recent months. In April, US forces withdrew from the Korengal valley in the east of the country, dubbed the "valley of death" by soldiers, ending years of intense but fruitless fighting. Forty-two Americans died and hundreds were wounded in fighting between 2006 and 2009 in the valley.

Nato has postponed a planned surge into Kandahar until the autumn amid fears of heavy Taliban resistance.

The operations are taking place against a backdrop of regional political intrigues. In recent months Karzai has held a series of meetings with Pakistan's army and intelligence chiefs, ostensibly with a view to negotiating a peace deal with the Taliban.

Riffat Hussain, a professor of defence studies at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, said the Sangin withdrawal was not likely to have a major impact on the Pakistan military's calculations.

"They're more concerned with what General [David] Petraeus is going to do. That's the major strategic concern right now," he said, referring to the US commander who took over from General Stanley McChrystal after comments about the Obama administration to Rolling Stone magazine cost McChrystal his job.

Petraeus has promised to review the rules of engagement governing Nato troops, which many soldiers had complained were too restrictive. But human rights activists and many Afghans worry that a change in the rules will lead to higher civilian casualties.

In Sangin, war-weary residents are bracing for an increase in violence as American troops try to succeed where the British failed. "One thing we know: the violence will increase," said Surat Khan, a brick-factory worker in Bastonzai, near Sangin. "The Americans will not be as defensive as the British. They are serious about conducting operations."

Solaiman Shah, a vegetable seller, was more sympathetic about the British losses. "The Brits have not helped us but they sacrificed a lot.

"It will take a long time for the Americans to build the same relationship with the people."

No escape yet for Bill Shaw, the Briton cleared of bribery in Kabul

The Guardian, July 4

A former British army officer Bill Shaw was acquitted today of bribery charges by an Afghan court which overturned an earlier conviction and two-year jail sentence.

Though acquitted, Shaw, a senior manager at G4S, the private security company that guards the British embassy in Kabul, still has to wait for his release. At the end of a hearing lasting more than seven hours and spread over two days, he was led back to prison today to await the completion of legal formalities.

Shaw said he was "very, very excited" about the verdict, describing his time in Pul-e-Charkhi, a prison infamous for its overcrowding and squalor, as "a living hell". In a statement from their home in Leeds, West Yorkshire, his overjoyed wife Liz, said: "I just want him home and won't believe this nightmare is over until he's back with us, his family."

In an interview broadcast on BBC Radio 4's The World this Weekend, Shaw described his ordeal as the "lowest part of my life". He said: "They moved me to a place called the counter-narcotics justice centre. That to me was a picture of Guantánamo Bay.

"Everything was taken off me … all your identity is stripped from you completely.

"You put a uniform on, they issue you with one bar of soap, a toothbrush and toothpaste - that is it, no possessions. That is the lowest part of my life, nine weeks spent in there being totally controlled and administered 24 hours a day."

His daughter Lisa Luckyn-Malone added: "We have been deeply concerned about Dad's health and safety, and hope he is released very soon."

Shaw's family has led a high-profile campaign, drawing attention to the former Royal Military police officer's deteriorating health and highlighting concerns about his safety in Pul-e-Charkhi.

The father-of-three and his lawyer, Kimberley Motley, said they have both received threats and that Shaw was put in solitary confinement at his own request.

Shaw, 52, who served in the RMP for 28 years and was awarded an MBE, was arrested and fined $25,000 (£16,400) in March by Afghanistan's national security directorate for paying a bribe to secure the release of the company's bombproof vehicles which had been confiscated by the Afghan security service. Shaw said he believed he was paying a legitimate fine to release the two vehicles.

Motley said today her client had been denied basic rights, including a presumption of innocence in the first trial: "We were proving his innocence rather than the prosecution proving he was guilty." Motley said no evidence and no witnesses were produced before the court.

Motley, who told the Guardian at Shaw's conviction that the court had not followed Afghan law or UN conventions to which Afghanistan is party, said the case ought to be an eyeopener to the flaws in the system. The law, she said "does provide protection, but is not being implemented. Rule of law needs to be improved by different [donor] countries."

Donor countries, including the UK, have given considerable amounts to the Afghan government to develop legal institutions and improve the rule of law.

In a brief statement today, the Foreign Office said it was "pleased for Mr Shaw and his family", adding "the UK continues to strongly support the work of the Afghan government to counter corruption and reinforce the rule of law".

Criticism of Shaw's arrest also centred on allegations that the Afghan government was making him a scapegoat in an attempt to counter criticism of corruption.

International private security firms have also earned the hostility of the Afghan population because of their abrasive behaviour and excessive use of force, which tars even those which may be more disciplined. " We will work with the authorities to ensure that Bill is returned to his family as soon as possible," a G4S spokesman told the Guardian.

Shaw's final release will depend on whether there is a counter-appeal, though his lawyer said both his co-accused as well as the office of the attorney general had said they did not plan to appeal.

Shaw's translator, Maiwand Limar, an Afghan, was also convicted in April but had his sentence reduced today from two years to eight months, six of which he has already served.

In the absence of a counter-appeal, Shaw will be out of prison once the formalities are completed. Even if he is released, however, the court will have to rule on whether he can leave the country before the completion of the 20 days which it has given for a counter-appeal to be filed.

After his acquittal, a tearful Shaw told Sky News: "My thanks to all my supporters, here and in the UK, the British embassy and G4S who have been behind me 100%. I look forward to seeing you soon."

Opium Use Skyrocketing in Afghanistan - UN

June 21/ Eurasianet

Afghanistan, the world’s largest opium producer and supplier is also a country that is confronting an alarming addiction problem, a new survey published by the UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime shows. At least 1 million Afghans, or roughly 8 percent of the population, are drug addicts, the survey found.

At a June 21 news conference to mark the report’s release, Deputy Minister of Counter Narcotics Mohammed Ibrahim Azhar said the number of opium users had increased by 53 percent since the last UN survey was conducted in 2005. The number of heroin users jumped 140 percent.

One place where addiction is growing the fastest is within Afghanistan’s security forces. The US Government Accountability Office reported in March that between 12 percent and 41 percent of Afghan National Police recruits (depending on the training center where the survey was conducted) suffered from drug addiction. Pointing to those findings at the June 21 news conference, the UN’s Deputy Special Representative Robert Watkins said drug use among police is a threat to the safety and security of the entire nation.

The UNODC survey also revealed the shocking statistic that as many as 50 percent of drug users provide opium to their children. In Afghanistan, raw opium paste is traditionally used to calm children, or, given the widespread lack of access to healthcare, as a pain reliever. Myriad social and economic problems – including unemployment, poverty and the general stress of over three decades of near-constant warfare – are believed to be spurring drug use among adults.

Experts say that difficulties surveying the habits and attitudes of Afghan women mean the drug-use figures, already double the global average, are likely much higher than what the survey’s findings indicate. Women comprised only 3 percent of the survey sample of over 5,000. Traditional opium-use patterns suggest there could be wide prevalence of drug use among women, pushing the nationwide figures higher.

The UNODC survey did not examine drug use among children. But an earlier study, commissioned by the State Department’s International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Department (INL), found an “alarming trend” of addiction to opium among younger children. “Children of nine, 14 months, and between two and four years” are addicted, the INL’s Thom Browne said during a visit to Afghanistan earlier in June. “This is the youngest age group exposed to drugs that we have seen worldwide. It has never been reported before.”

According to the survey, only 10 percent of Afghanistan’s drug users have received some treatment, though 90 percent have expressed a wish for it. “The treatment gap is enormous,” said Sarah Waller, a drug demand reduction consultant with the UNODC. Waller pointed out that drug demand reduction needs to treat not just the medical addiction, but also mental health issues.
Remedies are limited. There are few treatment centers, creating a “huge deficit,” the UN’s Watkins said. Centers for women and children are even scarcer.

Despite considerable funding of counter-narcotics programs, most attention has focused on the reduction of opium production and export. Programs for reducing drug dependency are severely under-funded.