LEADER ARTICLE: Between Two Elections

Times of India

20 Oct 2008, Aunohita Mojumdar


KABUL: Ahead of the US presidential polls Afghanistan is getting a renewed share of attention in Washington as the presidential candidates vie to prove their credentials in foreign and domestic policy. An 'Afghan strategy' has become a necessary part of the electoral paraphernalia as attention, which had once shifted from the Afghan to the Iraq theatre, returns.

Unfortunately for Afghanistan, the attention is largely occasioned by the spiralling insecurity which is taking a larger toll of lives including that of American soldiers than at any time since 2001. The UN recorded a total of 1,445 civilian deaths between January and August 31 this year, an increase of over 39 per cent over last year. Combined with increasing public disenchantment, non-delivery of basic services and increasing civilian casualties as a result of military operations, this has led to some soul-searching for answers amongst members of the international community with varying assessments.

However, whatever the opinion of the members of the western alliance, the reality is that it is America which dominates just by the sheer size of its support - both military and aid. Currently the US contributes more than 20,000 of the 50,700 troops for the NATO-led ISAF command and approximately another 13,000 under the US-led Coalition Forces.

In Afghanistan, it dominates western economic, political and security policies towards the country and US-centric financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF also play a determining role. Even where other western countries differ, this difference is usually not articulated because of the difficulties of securing enough support within the western coalition that could actually influence policy. In the foreseeable future this US dominance is likely to continue not least because of the considerable interests US has in the region.

9/11 and the ensuing 'war against terror' provided the US with the first foothold in terms of military and political bases in the region, not just in Afghanistan but also Central Asia. Currently the US is well positioned to pursue any military and political objectives in Iran and Pakistan from Afghanistan and its bases in Central Asia have been a source of considerable pressure and irritation for Russia. US interests in the energy resources of the region will also determine the direction of the growth of energy routes in the future which will be of considerable relevance to India.

Currently both the US presidential candidates support an increase in troop strength in Afghanistan. Though there is less detail about how exactly this 'surge' will play itself out, it is likely that future operations will see an increasing focus on Pakistan. Hawks in the Indian establishment may be gleeful about the cross-border strikes into Pakistan, but there is an absence of reasoned analysis. While it might suit India to let lie, institutionalisation of unilateral cross-border intrusions by inter- national military forces in the region has long-term implications for Indian security.
From the US presidential debates there is not much detail about the possible shift in American policy towards Afghanistan post-elections. Certainly the current presidential race suggests a limited awareness of realities on the ground, an ignorance whose extreme form was evident in the gaffe of the Republican vice-presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, who described Afghanistan as a "neighbouring country" of the US.

It is US officials, both military and adminis-trative, who have given more indicators of change in US policy though it is still too early to judge whether talk of change is being used more as a device to stem the tide of despondency, especially amidst partners in the military coalition. Recent weeks have seen an increasing number of US' western partners in Afghanistan terming Afghanistan a battle that cannot be won, but must be managed, amidst renewed signals of "talks with the Taliban".

While it has been clear that a pure military solution could never provide a complete solution, the response to the proposed negotiated settlement with the insurgents does not appear to have been well thought out. The international community seems content to let the Afghans take the lead on the political negotiations. While the details of any settlement ought to lie within the Afghan polity, it is unfortunate that the international community which has sacrificed both lives and money in pursuit of the idea of a liberated democratic Afghanistan, is unwilling now to draw a line in the sand.

Whatever the results of the US elections or a rearrangement of US priorities, it is Afghanistan's polity which is likely to see the most radical change in the coming year with the country approaching both presidential and parliamentary elections. Growing disenchantment with reconstruction and increasing anger at civilian deaths suggests that anti-foreigner jingoism will play well in an electoral battle. The impact of this will be exacerbated by the continuing ban on participation of political parties in the elections, a situation that gives more credence and influence to individual strongmen and conservative constituencies.

Democratic rights including human rights, women's rights, rule of law and freedom of media are likely to come under increasing pressure as the country moves towards the polling booth. Ultimately the next chapter of US policy towards Afghanistan may be determined more by changing realities in Afghanistan than in the White House.

The writer is a Kabul-based freelance journalist.