Eurasianet
AFGHANISTAN: A DOWN YEAR FOR OPIUM PRODUCTION, BUT IS THE TRAFFICKING THREAT RECEDING?
August 27, 2008
Afghanistan experienced a 19 percent decrease in the land under opium poppy cultivation in 2008 in comparison with the previous year, according to a report prepared by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. But even as the Afghan government lauds the decline, UN experts worry about another spike in production. This concern is underscored by the fact that actual production of opium declined only by 6 percent in 2008 over the previous year, the UNODC report states.
Winning the war against drugs in Afghanistan will be possible only if farmers who forsake the cultivation of poppies receive a level of economic and technical assistance that can help them grow alternative cash crops, UNODC officials suggest. Presently, the level of aid being given to these farmers is insufficient to achieve the desired aim. In some poppy-free areas, especially in the North, farmers are opting to cultivate cannabis, a plant much more difficult to detect.
Another cause for concern: links between the Taliban insurgency and the drug trade seem to be growing stronger. Despite the poppy cultivation decline in 2008, some experts estimate that the Taliban will derive up to $70 million in drug profits, which will be used to finance their insurgent campaign. Breaking the link between drugs and the militant will require greater involvement by NATO forces in Afghanistan. In an exclusive interview with EurasiaNet, the Afghanistan country representative of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Christina Oguz, discusses current trends and concerns about Afghanistan’s struggle to contain narcotics trafficking.
EurasiaNet: The UNODC’s 2008 Annual Opium Poppy Survey for Afghanistan cites strong leadership and the drought as factors for the decrease in the area under poppy cultivation. Do you see the decrease in 2008 as a trend or temporary?
Oguz: Well drought is a small reason, [accounting for] about 15 percent of the decrease. Most of it we can actually attribute to the government, both the central government – especially the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics – but also the governors in particular. If you look at Nangarhar Province, it is a remarkable achievement, but also Balkh is [poppy free] for a second year in a row. Badakhshan, which used to be number two [in production], [only] has around 200 hectares [under cultivation now]. It could easily become poppy free. What these three governors have in common is that they are strong leaders and they provide a clear vision for what they want, and people believe in what they say because they are able to mobilize the local community. This is a key combination. Having said that, we have to remember that poppy is an annual plant and so every year farmers have to make the decision: ‘Shall I plant? Shall I not plant?’ That decision is being taken now because the planting starts in October and this is where my worries come in.
I hope very much that this [the 2008 decline] is a trend. … It [is] a golden opportunity for the [Afghan] government and the international community to go in with massive investment in agriculture and rural development in a much more concerted way than they have done before … The problem is different for farmers depending on where they are. In Nangarhar, the landholdings are very small. … I think [farmers] there can last for the rest of the year on what they have. But next year, if they don’t see that somebody will come to their rescue, a percent will go back to cultivating poppy.
EurasiaNet: The report indicates a North-South divide in terms of poppy cultivation. Why is the South producing more than the North?
Oguz: We have agriculture conditions that are conducive [to producing narcotics in the South]. You have an insurgency, high levels of production, very well organized criminal networks and all this together makes the environment very conducive to cultivating opium.
EurasiaNet: How can the counter-narcotics strategy be tweaked to increase its effectiveness in the South, where poverty is not the main factor? Farmers there seem to be better off than in the North.
Oguz: What we would like to see is much more law enforcement. [We need] investment to wipe out the laboratories, stop the drug convoys and dismantle the criminal networks. In terms of law enforcement, this is much more productive than trying to eradicate the plant. Also it is important for the farmers to realize that they are not always the main target.
EurasiaNet: Has law-enforcement worked so far?
Oguz: The police have not been so professional. … A combination of having a more professional and dedicated police force, and a [greater degree of] political will to eradicate corruption [is needed in the South]. I think if you look at what they have been able to achieve in terms of eliminating poppy cultivation from the northern part of the country, you see it as a model. The government needs to act on corruption. What we are seeing is that … the brains behind the drug trade are still untouched.
EurasiaNet: Has there been any increase in political will to address narcotics trafficking in the last year?
Oguz: Close collaboration with the neighboring countries needs to be developed. I know there are a lot of political difficulties involved in this. But the fact is that criminal networks don’t care about with whom they collaborate. … Governments are sometimes, for political reasons, more resistant to really having a working relationship. I think this must change.
EurasiaNet: So do you see a difference in the political will?
Oguz: I do see a difference. I must say during the last half-year or so there is much more talk about [narcotics]. Before [the drugs issue] did not feature very high up on the agenda, but now the government talks about it, people talk about it. If the public awareness is there, it is crucial for a political breakthrough.
EurasiaNet: The UNODC report for the first time calls on the international community to act on UN Security Council Resolutions 1735 and 1822, and target drug traffickers who support and fund terrorism in Afghanistan. The report adds that the international community has "yet to demonstrate willingness" to comply with the Security Council decisions. Why is this willingness absent?
Oguz: They [members of the international community] don’t have the legislation in place. We are helping with that. Referring to the [United Nations Security Council] resolution, which calls upon member states to add names [of financiers] to terrorist lists. … This is not happening. This is not only for Afghanistan but also along the whole chain. We are … reminding people that they should do that.
EurasiaNet: In 2007 you called for names to be added to this list. Has a single name been added?
Oguz: Not to my knowledge.
EurasiaNet: What prevents the international community from doing this?
Oguz: I don’t know. I cannot comment on that. Maybe their intelligence is not good enough.
EurasiaNet: The report says the International Security and Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF) needs to get more involved in combating drug traffickers. How can this occur?
Oguz: I do think [[ISAF is] getting more on board and there are lots of areas of course where [it is] synchronizing. This is what people tell me. I don’t have concrete information. Obviously ISAF has another mandate, which is security, but they are operating in the areas where you have all these phenomena we talked about. The link between insurgency and drug trafficking and drug production is very close.
EurasiaNet: Is the link between insurgency and drug trafficking getting stronger?
Oguz: Yes it is getting stronger. Afghan law enforcement officials do see drugs and weapons and suicide equipment and terrorist manuals in the field.
EurasiaNet: How will this linkage impact the situation here? You have called for urgent action on this.
Oguz: It is very, very, very worrying because in a way you have all the evils concentrated in one part of the country [- the South]. … [The drug traffickers and the insurgents] have different agendas, but they have something in common and that is money and power.
EurasiaNet: This is a good news year. But what about the increase in cannabis cultivation? Are you assessing it?
Oguz: We are to the extent that we can do it. In terms of cannabis mapping, we are in discussions with one of our donors – because it is more difficult to find the cannabis in satellite imaging. We need high resolution images. It is easier to hide it with other crops. We would like to do it in the provinces where cannabis is being grown, test the methodology and then hopefully do it countrywide next year.
It is a big concern. If you look at countries that are exporting it, Morocco was the biggest one, but they are clamping down. There is the risk that Afghanistan is becoming the number one country in cannabis. People think that cannabis is just a substitute for opium. It is not. It is not just a substitute; some people are diversifying their trade, and, of course, if it happens in Uruzgan, Kandahar and Helmand, you have the same problem as you have with poppy. … If you focus on only one thing you don’t see what is around, so I think it is important to start talking about cannabis.
EurasiaNet: If you had to sum up this year, would you say it’s an opportunity?
Oguz: It is an opportunity that would have to be taken now. There isn’t so much time to waste here. We have to act immediately because the farmers make their decision now.
Editor’s Note: Aunohita Mojumdar is a freelance journalist based in Kabul.
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