AFGHANISTAN: ELECTIONS SHAPING UP AS A COMPLICATED STEP FORWARD

EURASIA INSIGHT

A Eurasianet Q&A With European Commission Delegation Ambassador Hansjorg Kretschmer Aunohita Mojumdar 8/10/09



The difficulty in achieving consensus among its 27 member states is a major factor in keeping the European Union from playing a more robust role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction, despite the considerable resources provided through the European Commission and individual bilateral contributions. In June, however, the EU agreed on the need to deepen its engagement with Afghanistan. Change is already evident. The EU is providing 35 million euros to help ensure a fair-and-secure presidential election on August 20, and will be deploying a 100-member Election Observer Mission. The European Commission delegation’s ambassador in Kabul, Hansjörg Kretschmer, talked recently with EurasiaNet’s Aunohita Mojumdar on the importance of elections, the current situation and the engagement of the international community with Afghanistan. The text of Kretschmer’s comments follows:

EurasiaNet: Why do you think the elections are important for Afghanistan?
Kretschmer: The elections are absolutely imperative in order maintain the credibility, or to give more credibility to the current system. From the side of the international community and our constituencies in the different countries [that] participate in this collective effort here, it is of course important to see that the elections can be held now five years after the preceding elections -- that the country is able to carry out such elections and therefore has made progress -- because these elections are conducted basically under Afghan leadership. If the elections take place in a proper way, it is a signal to our people abroad that our efforts here in Afghanistan have brought some fruit, notwithstanding all the negative media reporting we have these days about the security situation.

EurasiaNet: Surely the negative media reporting is based on a situation generally accepted to be quite dismal?
Kretschmer: Yes, of course. The security situation is worrying. No one will hide that now. We see the degree of insecurity getting bigger in the northern and western parts of the country, which until not so long ago was considered rather peaceful and stable.

EurasiaNet: Do you think it is wise to have elections in such a difficult situation where there is concern about the difficulties of campaigning and voting?
Kretschmer: We have to look at the constitution. It imposes this date. So there is no choice, but to make the utmost effort to carry out and hold the elections. There is a need for Afghans to express their verdict on the Afghan government, and authorities’ record over the last five years. The other question is, of course, whether the elections can be carried out in a way that is legitimate: on the one hand without major irregularities; on the other hand with as vast a part of the Afghan population as possible being able to participate. Measures are taken. Efforts are taken. For the time being we have to see -- especially with regard to possible disenfranchisement of the part of the population -- how many people will be able to vote. Of course the intention is to allow as many Afghans as possible to participate in the elections. The final decision has not yet been made whether some polling stations cannot be opened because of security concerns, or technical reasons. But the effort is to have the biggest possible participation in order to ensure the legitimacy of the final result.

EurasiaNet: Is there not a danger that a less-than-legitimate election will further complicate the atmosphere?
Kretschmer: Of course the risk exists and therefore all efforts are undertaken to ensure as wide and as correct a process of elections as possible. I am very impressed by the way in which the campaigning has been going until now. There appears to be a real debate in the media, in the public, about these elections; about the pros and cons of the government action and so on. That is very positive. So the Afghan people seem to be engaging in this process.

EurasiaNet: One of the factors affecting the credibility of the elections is the continuing presence of candidates who have been accused of past crimes. There has been such criticism of one of the vice presidential candidates of the incumbent president himself. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Kretschmer: There was the possibility to challenge [the eligibility of candidates]. In fact, 57 candidates have been challenged and the Electoral Complaints Commission has decided on that and removed names from the final list. But of course you are right that from an international perspective we can have questions with regard to some of the names; but in the end, again, that is an Afghan process and you can have a wider debate in relation to transitional justice. You remember the Transitional Justice Action Plan signed in December 2006 by the president. We have not seen much happening on this front. So there are, of course, difficulties in this country to carry this through and that is just the Afghan reality. It does not mean it is forgotten forever. But certainly, reality has shown that the situation is not ripe yet to handle this, as it would be in some other countries.

EurasiaNet: Do you foresee problems if this legitimacy and credibility is lacking?
Kretschmer: People sometimes ask whether the reaction will be like in Iran. I really don’t know. But I hear from Afghans that it will not be like in Iran. Because what you saw in Iran was, after all, peaceful demonstration on which the authorities cracked down. My Afghan interlocutors are concerned that if there is widespread dissatisfaction this could easily turn into violent action. This would of course pour oil in the fire of the general level of insecurity, so we must do everything to avoid reasons for such widespread dissatisfaction.

EurasiaNet: Stepping back, how do you see the political and security situation as having developed since you have been here?
Kretschmer: I came in the last quarter of 2006. Since then we have seen a continuous increase of insecurity, the spread of insecurity, and what was interesting was that this somehow happened in parallel with continuous gradual building up of international security forces and increase in the number and also -- I would hope -- in the quality of Afghan National Security Forces.

The big question now is whether the surge of international troops -- essentially the 17,000 American soldiers that came into the country recently -- will break the increasing tendency of insecurity. Whether this will be the case, I cannot judge at the moment. It is too fresh. Certainly the very competent, very impressive new commander of ISAF [NATO’s International Security and Assistance Force], General [Stanley A.] McChrystal, has in my view an excellent approach in having the sense to say we must first secure the Afghan people before we think of killing or attacking the insurgents.

That is very important because I think this aspect in the past has not got sufficient attention, not only in terms of civilian casualties but in terms of the overall image projected by the international community here. In military terms, this extreme buildup of security measures and also the other aspect -- behaviour in traffic, for example -- all these have been elements that clearly contributed to antagonizing the Afghan people toward the international military presence here. I think this new approach is absolutely fundamental and very correct. I hope over time the troop reinforcements together with the new approach -- which is more sensitive considering what is the Afghan wider population’s perception of us -- will lead to a positive result.

EurasiaNet: Apart from the military component of the strategy, do you think there were mistakes in the approach to civilian reconstruction?
Kretschmer: If you talk about the civilian dimension of assistance and reconstruction, we also see a very improved situation over the last one to one-and-a-half years with improved coordination of the international community and more ownership being taken by a stronger Afghan government that now, in certain areas has a clear strategy. But development, which is to have sustainable results, will take time.

EurasiaNet: The political part of the reconstruction has been dominated by the United States though the EU has spent resources here. Will that change now?
Kretschmer: I think now all sides, including the Europeans, will provide more civilian reconstruction assistance. But personally, I think it is not necessarily a matter of quantity, but quality. I think the amount of money that has come into this country since 2002 -- perhaps with a better coordinated approach and better preparedness on the side of the Afghan authorities, more could have been obtained. So quality is as important if not more important than quantity. We want to achieve sustainable development -- and for this you don’t necessarily need big money, you need right people and the right approach.

You talk about political when you refer to a civilian approach, but I think there is one dimension that is still rather a white sheet of paper. Personally I consider the situation in Afghanistan as being to a large extent a political issue and the focus on the side of the international community has until now been a dual approach -- military on the one side and civilian reconstruction on the other side. But there has not been on the side of the Afghan, or the international community, a policy on how to tackle the political questions involved. [. . .] This is usually referred to as a reintegration-reconciliation debate, which we have now had for a couple of months or a year. That is another important aspect that I think policymakers especially here in Afghanistan [must address] because it must be an Afghan-led process, but also those in the capitals abroad have to think more on it.