DARK DAYS FOR DEMOCRATIZATION HOPES AMID BURGEONING ELECTORAL FRAUD CONTROVERSY

Eurasia Insight:
September 9
Aunohita Mojumdar


Two developments on September 8 seem likely to plunge Afghanistan into a long and debilitating battle over the country's electoral process and the government's very legitimacy. The crux of the unfolding problem is that the country's two main electoral institutions appear at odds with each other.

A split became evident on September 8. The government-appointed Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced results that put incumbent President Hamid Karzai above the majority mark on the basis of votes counted from 91.6 percent of polling stations. But the announcement defied an order issued earlier in the day by the UN-appointed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) to exclude results from a number of polling stations demonstrating "clear and convincing evidence of fraud."

The IEC results - giving Karzai 54.1 and challenger Abdullah Abdullah 28.2 percent of the votes - would enable the Karzai camp to claim victory without the necessity of a run-off vote. "We see this as a victory even though we do not announce it as one," Waheed Omar, the spokesman for Karzai's campaign, told EurasiaNet, noting the campaign would wait for certified results before celebrating.

Many reports of widespread fraud stemming from the August 20 presidential election originate in southern provinces said to heavily favor Karzai. The New York Times has reported that Karzai supporters reported made-up results for as many as 800 polling stations, each of which showed relatively heavy turnout and large majorities of ballots cast in the incumbent's favor.

In a detailed statement accompanying the order to exclude results, the ECC - which has the mandate to order a re-poll or recount - said fraud in a number of polling stations was characterized either by an exceptionally high number of votes, or an exceptionally high percentage in favor of one candidate. Terming these strong indicators of electoral irregularities, the ECC has ordered the IEC to conduct an audit and recount in polling stations for which the preliminary results have shown 100 percent turnout or where 95 percent of the votes are in favor of one candidate.

Observers were surprised the IEC announced the latest batch of results only hours after the ECC's directive. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In a brief evening press conference announcing Karzai's definitive lead, the IEC refused to exclude the results from the suspicious polling stations. The commission claimed it was unable to understand the ECC's order because of a supposed discrepancy between the Dari language version and the English-language version. The IEC's Chief Electoral Officer, Daoud Najafi, insisted that his commission could not implement the criterion for audits until after the preliminary count had been made. Facing repeated questions on the ECC order, Najafi insisted that the IEC had tallied votes based on completed documentation.

Indications of a political challenge to the ECC were also evident from the Karzai camp, where spokesman Omar tacitly challenged the recount directive.

"We respect the ECC's order, though we do not agree with it. In a way it could be counterproductive. We hope the ECC does its work in a way that does justice to the votes of people in Afghanistan and we will wait for that. We will not interfere with the process, but we are going to take it up with the ECC," he said.

For its part, the IEC insisted that it would "take a long time" to recount if it were to follow the ECC directive. Deputy Electoral Officer Zekria Barakzai said the ECC order could impact 70 to 80 percent of polling stations.

Such reference to a slow recount strikes a sensitive nerve with officials and diplomats. The ECC mandates that audits must take place in the presence of ECC officials. But the ECC's lack of resources is likely to increase the time required for the audits ordered on September 8. With winter approaching, a second round of polling - required if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote - would be increasingly difficult to hold in a timely fashion after these further delays.

Though the international community is concerned that a prolonged period without results could lead to instability, the widespread reports of fraud have made questions about the presidential vote's legitimacy difficult to ignore.

Both the UN and the European Union Observer Mission (EUOM) issued statements on September 8 expressing concern, and calling for the exclusion of results where there is evidence of irregularities. The EUOM said its findings had confirmed large-scale ballot stuffing and that despite legal provisions on fraud detection and mitigation, hundreds of thousands of fraudulent votes were accepted at the main tally center in Kabul and included in the preliminary results.

In a clumsy attempt to deflect further criticism, the IEC removed detailed fact sheets on the results from its website September 8, turning dozen's of URLs into dead links.


Editor's Note: Aunohita Mojumdar is an Indian freelance journalist based in Kabul. She has reported on the South Asian region for the past 19 years.