AFGHANISTAN: US AND INDIA MULL WAYS TO CONTAIN THE TALIBAN

EURASIA INSIGHT

Aunohita Mojumdar 3/23/09


In the past, a visit to India by a CIA director could have set off a storm of protest and political jousting in New Delhi. But given the troubling Taliban issue in neighboring Pakistan, Indians’ perception of the United States is changing. These days, the emerging US-Indian partnership is developing into an important element of Washington’s stabilization plan for Afghanistan.

When newly minted CIA Director Leon Panetta visited India recently, he was greeted only by a mild protest from leftist parties over his meeting with Indian Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram. Panetta was in India to discuss Afghanistan, the ’Af-Pak’ situation and India’s role in a new American regional policy initiative. Highlighting the importance of emerging US-Indian ties, the March 19 foray to New Delhi marked Panetta’s first overseas trip since his Senate confirmation. It also followed visits by other senior US intelligence officials, including one earlier in March by FBI Director Robert Mueller. After his visit to India, Panetta went on to Islamabad for talks with Pakistani leaders.

Further emphasizing Washington’s growing interest in New Delhi’s Afghanistan approach, on March 21 President Barack Obama’s special envy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, told an audience in Brussels that India would be a "major factor in resolving" the situation in Afghanistan. Holbrooke also appeared to echo Indian concerns that Pakistan has replaced Afghanistan as the epicenter of the threat posed by international terrorists.

"We must recognize that the heart of the threat to the United States, to the European Union, to Australia, to many other countries in the world including India and, I stress, including Pakistan itself, comes from . . . western Pakistan," Holbrooke told participants at the Brussels security conference.

Since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001, India, which provided support and supplies to the Northern Alliance against the Taliban, has had extensive bilateral contacts with the Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s administration. Afghanistan has become the largest beneficiary of Indian aid, receiving $1.2 billion since 2001.

Through its embassy in Kabul -- as well as four consulates in Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar-i Sharif -- India is now able to project its influence across Afghanistan. That fact has caused consternation in Pakistan, with Islamabad calling on Kabul to curb New Delhi’s "anti-Pakistani" activities within the country, charges that range from spying to training militants operating against Pakistan.

For its part, India has consistently accused Pakistan of supporting anti-Indian and anti-Western militants. It has also drawn repeated attention to Pakistan’s unwillingness to allow Indian goods overland access to Afghanistan -- through Pakistani territory -- forcing India to route supplies for its projects through the more circuitous Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

India’s low public profile may soon change. Given the considerable agreement between the United States and India on Afghanistan policy, New Delhi appears poised to assume a larger role in Afghan stabilization efforts.

T.C.A. Raghavan, a senior Indian diplomat overseeing the Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran division in the External Affairs Ministry, recently welcomed the ’Af-Pak’ approach of developing a "coordinated policy" on Afghanistan and Pakistan. "We have always seen [the region] as a single issue," he said during a March 18 seminar on Afghanistan, organized by the Maulana Abdul Kalam Azad Institute for Asian Studies, a think-tank funded by his ministry.

Raghavan also welcomed the "inclination to see Iran as a stabilizing element," adding that Tehran’s role in Afghanistan "cannot be minimized." The diplomat also embraced American promises to strengthen the Afghan army and remarked that the US commitment to increase its troop level in Afghanistan was a positive step and a sign of its resolve to remain committed to stabilization efforts.

While India has officially dismissed talk of sending Indian troops into Afghanistan, there is increasing talk within Indian circles of a "regional force" that could replace the "international forces" currently operating under a NATO mandate. Ved Pratap Vaidik, a scholar and analyst with close links to the government, articulated this view forcefully. He called for "a deadline for the removal of foreign forces" from Afghanistan.

It is "time for a regional solution," he said, adding that "foreign [i.e. western] forces should be replaced by regional forces." Vaidik suggested a maximum deadline of three years for this withdrawal.

India has been wary of attempts to talk to the Taliban, insisting on strict parameters for any such dialogue. India’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Jayant Prasad, told EurasiaNet last year that talking with terrorists or those who did not accept democracy and political pluralism was akin to accepting that "you can fry snowballs."

While India has had considerable links with Iran and Russia, its developing ties with the United States over the past decade have overshadowed, but not mitigated, these historical linkages. India will send representatives to the SCO meeting to be held in Moscow March 27, as well as the international meeting on Afghanistan in The Hague on March 31.

Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon was in Washington earlier in March for consultations that included the ’Af-Pak’ issue. Both Holbrooke and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen are expected in India on April 8 to discuss the results of the forthcoming US strategic review on Afghanistan.